Brazil presidential election 2026 first round (October 4, 2026): Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) wins more than 30.0% of valid votes
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. September 2026
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Predicted for 4. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL, son of Jair Bolsonaro) runs as the Bolsonarista candidate after Jair Bolsonaro was barred from public office until 2030 by a TSE ruling. The latest Datafolha poll (September 2026) shows Flávio at ~33% in the first round. Polymarket gives a 76% probability for him finishing second in round one and a 55% overall win probability on $149.8M in trading volume. The 30% threshold is ~3 pp below the polling mean; with typical Brazilian polling errors of ±3–4 pp, the probability is approximately 67%. No contradiction with the open 'Lula >37%' prediction: both values can hold simultaneously.
Data basis for this prediction
- Datafolha September 2026: Lula 38 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 33 % (erster Wahlgang)
- Polymarket 'Brazil Presidential Election': Flávio Bolsonaro Gesamtsieg 55 %, zweiter Platz 1. Runde 76 % (Stand 16.09.2026, Volumen 149,8 Mio. USD)
- TSE/Reuters: Jair Bolsonaro amtsunfähig bis 2030 (TSE-Urteil Juni 2023, bestätigt durch Reuters)
- Polymarket Marktdaten: Auflösung 3. Oktober 2026 (erster Wahlgang)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The PolitPro aggregate for Berlin shows CDU at 19.6% on September 16, 2026; INSA (September 7–14) gives 20%. Polymarket gives CDU a 27% chance of winning the most seats. The 19.0% threshold sits ~0.6 pp below the polling mean of ~19.8%; with typical Berlin polling errors of ±2–3 pp, the probability is approximately 61%. CDU and Die Linke are neck-and-neck in polls (~19.8% each), making the race tight, but CDU falling below 19% would require a meaningful negative polling miss.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The PolitPro polling aggregate for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern shows Die Linke at 10.6% as of September 15/16, 2026; pollytix (September 8/9) shows 12%. The party average is ~11%, well above the 9% threshold. With typical polling errors of ±2–3 pp for East German state elections and a 2 pp buffer between mean and threshold, the probability is approximately 73%. No Polymarket market available; calibrated via polling aggregate.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Infratest dimap and INSA (September 2026, cited via Wirtschaftswoche) put the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at 32% (AfD 35–37%, Greens 5%, BSW 4%). The SPD benefits from Minister-President Manuela Schwesig's sustained high personal popularity in the state – she achieved a historic 39.6% in 2021 – placing the party far above the national SPD trend. The 28% threshold represents the lower end of the polling confidence interval (±4 pp) and would imply a loss of ~12 pp vs 2021. The open Cassandra predictions for MV (AfD >35%, CDU >12%, FDP <5%) are arithmetically compatible with an SPD result above 28%. No Polymarket/Kalshi market prices available for MV party results.