🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian Presidential Election (1st round, October 4, 2026): Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) finishes second behind Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) (confirmed by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or AFP)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 24. August 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

82%

Polymarket prices an 86% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro (Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, Senator for Rio de Janeiro, campaign launched July 25, 2026) finishes second in the first round. Lula leads polls with ~62.5% implied total Polymarket probability; Flávio sits at ~30–35%. Since no candidate will reach 50%+ in the first round, a runoff on October 25, 2026 will follow. Jair Bolsonaro is ineligible after his conviction (coup case, August 2025). Main risk for Bolsonaro's second place: a surprise strong showing by a center candidate (Simone Tebet/MDB at 8–12%) could push Flávio to third.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket 'Brazil Presidential First Round 2nd Place – Flávio Bolsonaro': 86% (Stand 24.08.2026)
Flávio Bolsonaro Kampagnenstart 25. Juli 2026: Al Jazeera (26.07.2026)
AS/COA Poll Tracker Brazil 2026: Lula 40-44%, Flávio 30-34% (Aug 2026)
Jair Bolsonaro Ineligibilität nach Verurteilung: Wikipedia Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 presidential campaign

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage war falsch in der Platzierung: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) belegte im ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 den ERSTEN Platz (47,03 %, 56,1 Mio. Stimmen), während Lula (PT) mit 45,16 % (53,9 Mio. Stimmen) auf den zweiten Platz kam – also genau umgekehrt. Beide ziehen erwartungsgemäß in die Stichwahl am 25. Oktober 2026 ein, und kein Kandidat erreichte eine absolute Mehrheit. Quellen: Wikipedia '2026 Brazilian general election', NPR (04.10.2026), Americas Quarterly.

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