🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Brazilian Presidential Election Round 1 (October 4, 2026): No candidate reaches an absolute majority – runoff on October 25, 2026 becomes necessary (confirmed by TSE or Globo by October 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 4. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

93%

Current polls (Real Time Big Data/Quaest, Aug 27–31, 2026): Lula (PT) 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 30%, Augusto Cury 11%, others ~21%. Brazil requires an absolute majority (>50% of valid votes) to avoid a runoff. Even the optimistic scenario for Lula (45%, per open platform prediction) falls short. Polymarket/Metaculus imply >92% probability of a second round.

Data basis for this prediction

Real Time Big Data/Quaest Umfrage Brasilien, 27.–31. August 2026: Lula 38 %, Flávio Bolsonaro 30 %, Cury 11 % (AS/COA Poll Tracker)
Al Jazeera: Brazil 2026 – Lula holds slim lead over Flávio Bolsonaro (15. August 2026)
Polymarket: Brazil 2026 Presidential Election Märkte (polymarket.com, Stand September 2026)
TSE (Tribunal Superior Electoral): Brasilianisches Wahlrecht – 50 %-Hürde erste Runde

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Im ersten Wahlgang am 4. Oktober 2026 erreichte kein Kandidat die absolute Mehrheit: Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) erhielt 47,03 % der gültigen Stimmen, Lula (PT) 45,16 %, Augusto Cury (AVANTE) 2,89 %. Der TSE bestätigte das Ergebnis noch am Wahltag und legte die Stichwahl auf den 25. Oktober 2026 fest. Die Kernvorhersage – kein Kandidat überschreitet 50 %, Stichwahl wird notwendig – ist exakt eingetreten. Abweichung zur Prognose: Bolsonaro lag im ersten Wahlgang vor Lula (Umfragen hatten Lula mit 38 % und Bolsonaro mit 30 % modelliert), aber dies war nicht Teil der bewerteten Vorhersage. Quellen: TSE (tse.jus.br), Exame Live-Blog, HubPolítico, Wikipedia (2026 Brazilian general election).

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