Berlin State Parliament election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 11.0% of valid votes (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls place Berlin's SPD at 12.9–13% (PolitPro Trend 6 September 2026; Infratest-dimap BerlinTrend RBB: 13%). The 11% threshold lies roughly 2 percentage points below the polling average — a historically extraordinary undershoot. In 2021 the Berlin SPD won 21.4%; even on the currently low trajectory, the buffer above 11% remains statistically solid.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Wahltrend Berlin, Stand 6. September 2026: SPD 12,9 %
- Infratest-dimap BerlinTrend für RBB: SPD 13 % (September 2026)
- Wahlrecht.de: Berliner Umfragen zur Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026
- Wikipedia: Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026 (Wahltermin 20. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die SPD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen 12,1 % der abgegebenen Stimmen. Das liegt klar über der Vorhersage-Schwelle von 11,0 %. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), Al Jazeera, The Berliner, ZDF heute, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Wahlanalyse.
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