Berlin State Parliament election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 11.0% of valid votes (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Current polls place Berlin's SPD at 12.9–13% (PolitPro Trend 6 September 2026; Infratest-dimap BerlinTrend RBB: 13%). The 11% threshold lies roughly 2 percentage points below the polling average — a historically extraordinary undershoot. In 2021 the Berlin SPD won 21.4%; even on the currently low trajectory, the buffer above 11% remains statistically solid.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Wahltrend Berlin, Stand 6. September 2026: SPD 12,9 %
- Infratest-dimap BerlinTrend für RBB: SPD 13 % (September 2026)
- Wahlrecht.de: Berliner Umfragen zur Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026
- Wikipedia: Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026 (Wahltermin 20. September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (Real Time Big Data/Quaest, Aug 27–31, 2026): Lula (PT) 38%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 30%, Augusto Cury 11%, others ~21%. Brazil requires an absolute majority (>50% of valid votes) to avoid a runoff. Even the optimistic scenario for Lula (45%, per open platform prediction) falls short. Polymarket/Metaculus imply >92% probability of a second round.