Berlin state election (20 Sep 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5 % threshold and does not enter parliament
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 17. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The weighted polling average from dawum.de (4 surveys, n = 6,627, 10–14 Sep 2026) puts the FDP at 3.0 % – roughly two percentage points below the 5 % threshold. Individual surveys (Tagesspiegel, Berliner Morgenpost, Sep 2026) also show 3 %. No district-seat path or meaningful last-minute surge is visible; the trend has kept the Berlin FDP stably below the barrier since spring 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- dawum.de/Berlin: FDP 3,0 % (gew. Schnitt, 4 Erhebungen, n = 6.627, 10.–14.09.2026)
- wahl-radar.de/Berlin: FDP-Trend 2,5–3,5 % in letzten drei Erhebungen (Stand 14.09.2026)
- Tagesspiegel Wahlumfrage Berlin September 2026: FDP 3 %
- Berliner Morgenpost Umfrage September 2026: FDP 3 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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