🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): Die Linke finishes as the strongest single party, polling ahead of the CDU (confirmed by Berlin state returning officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

60%

The latest Infratest dimap poll (September 11, 2026) shows Die Linke (lead candidate Elif Eralp) at 23%, ahead of the CDU (Stefan Evers) at 21%, a gap that has been consistent at 2–4 percentage points over the last three weeks. AfD follows at 17%, Greens 16%, SPD 10%. The Linke's lead is within the standard polling margin of error of ±2.5%, making this competitive but leaning in Die Linke's favour. Existing open predictions address percentage thresholds (Linke >18%, CDU >16.5%), not the relative ranking — this prediction is an independent dimension.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap Berlin-Umfrage 11.09.2026: Die Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 17 %, Grüne 16 %, SPD 10 % (wahlrecht.de)
Konsistenter Linke-Vorsprung 2–4 Pp. vor CDU in letzten 3 Wochen laut wahlrecht.de Aggregat
Spitzenkandidaten: Elif Eralp (Linke) vs. Stefan Evers (CDU) als Regierende-Bürgermeister-Kandidaten (tagesschau.de)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eindeutig eingetreten. Bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 wurde Die Linke (Elif Eralp) mit 25,7 % stärkste Einzelpartei – deutlich vor der CDU (Stefan Evers) mit 18,8 %. Der tatsächliche Abstand (6,9 Prozentpunkte) übertraf sogar den in den Umfragen gemessenen Vorsprung von 2–4 Punkten. Die Linke gewann 47 der 158 Sitze. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (offizielles Ergebnis), Wikipedia '2026 Berlin state election', Al Jazeera 20.9.2026, The Berliner ('Die Linke Are Clear Winners').

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