Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): Die Linke receives more than 18.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Two recent polls show Die Linke in Berlin well above the 18% threshold: Forsa (August 4–18, 2026) at 22%, INSA (August 7–13, 2026) at 19%. In Berlin, Die Linke has a strong base (East Berlin strongholds). Headwind comes from BSW as a competing party that could siphon votes on the left fringe. Both polls are clearly above the threshold; calibrated at ~65%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forsa-Umfrage Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Die Linke 22 % (18. August 2026)
- INSA-Umfrage Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl: Die Linke 19 % (13. August 2026)
- PolitPro Berlin 2026: CDU 20 %, Die Linke 19 %, AfD 18 %, SPD 15 % (Sep 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Linke erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu, bpb.de, Al Jazeera) 25,7 % der Stimmen und wurde damit erstmals stärkste Kraft. Das Ergebnis lag deutlich über der Schwelle von 18,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat klar ein – die Umfragen (Forsa 22 %, INSA 19 %) unterschätzten das Ergebnis sogar noch.
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