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💻 Technology · Next Year

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) beats the Non-GAAP EPS analyst consensus in its Q3-FY2026 earnings report (approx. October 28, 2026; confirmed by Alphabet press release or Bloomberg)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 28. October 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle
Probability
72%

Alphabet beat the Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 14 of the past 16 quarters (87.5% beat rate, Bloomberg/FactSet). Google Cloud grew ~28% YoY in Q2 2026. The NASDAQ Composite closed at 26,402 on August 29, 2026 (–0.52%), indicating an overall positive valuation environment for tech. The Non-GAAP EPS consensus for Q3 FY2026 is estimated at approximately $2.10–2.20 per share (Bloomberg extrapolation). No Polymarket market for Alphabet Q3-FY2026 earnings found. High beat rate, AI tailwinds, and Cloud growth make a further beat highly probable.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Alphabet Q2 FY2026-Ergebnis: Google Cloud +28 % YoY, EPS-Beat (Alphabet IR, Juli 2026)
  • Alphabet historische EPS-Beat-Rate: 14/16 Quartale (Bloomberg/FactSet, Stand Aug 2026)
  • NASDAQ-Schlussstand 29.08.2026: 26.402 Punkte (Yahoo Finance, 29.08.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
Alphabet meldete am 28. Oktober 2026 einen GAAP-EPS von 2,12 USD für Q3 FY2026 – deutlich unter dem Analysten-Konsens von ca. 3,01–3,02 USD (MISS von ~0,90 USD bzw. ~30 %). Alphabet veröffentlicht keine separaten Non-GAAP-EPS-Zahlen in der offiziellen Pressemitteilung (SEC-Formular 8-K), weshalb der GAAP-EPS der maßgebliche Vergleichswert ist. Auch der Umsatz (127,58 Mrd. USD) verfehlte die Schätzung (127,93 Mrd. USD). Zudem sank der EPS gegenüber Q3 2025 (2,87 USD) – ein unerwarteter YoY-Rückgang, der auf erhebliche Sonderbelastungen hindeutet. Einzig Google Cloud schlug mit 30,71 Mrd. USD (+103 % YoY) die Erwartungen (29,10 Mrd. USD). Die Vorhersage scheiterte vor allem, weil der tatsächliche Konsens (~3,01–3,02 USD) weit über der in der Vorhersage angenommenen Schätzung von 2,10–2,20 USD lag und der realisierte EPS diesen Konsens deutlich verfehlte. Quellen: SEC 8-K Alphabet Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000080/googexhibit991q32026.htm), MarketBeat (https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-10-28-alphabet-inc-stock-1/), Walter Bloomberg / X (https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2115535292950094116).
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Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR) closes above $185.00 per share on at least one trading day in November 2026 — confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by December 1, 2026

PLTR closed at $175.40 on November 4, 2026 (after-hours: $170.88, -2.58%; intraday high: $176.54; 52-week high: $212.94). Palantir clearly beat Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus: total revenue $2.313B, US Commercial revenue +148% YoY to $984M. The $185 threshold is +5.5% above the closing price or +8.3% above after-hours levels. Typical post-earnings 'sell the news' may weigh short-term, but the 52-week high of $212.94 confirms the level is reachable. NVIDIA earnings on November 18, 2026 could serve as a sector-wide catalyst. No direct Polymarket equivalent; own estimate: ~42%.

42%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026
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Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) closes below $100.00 per share on November 10, 2026 (confirmed by Nasdaq or Bloomberg by November 11, 2026)

CBRS trades at $109.18 (October 30, 2026) — already 61% below its all-time high of $279.72. The final and largest lockup expiration is scheduled for November 10, 2026: approximately 19.4 million shares are unlocked (of three tranches of 19.4M each). Prior lockup tranches have consistently weighed on the stock. Insiders have sold ~$394.6M in shares since the May 2026 IPO — zero insider purchases. A Culper Research short-seller report has triggered multiple investigations. A close below $100 requires a ~8.4% decline — plausible given the expected supply pressure on expiration day.

62%
Next Week · Predicted for 10. Nov 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ: ARM) beats Q2-FY2027 EPS consensus of $0.47 per share — earnings report November 4, 2026 after market close (confirmed by ARM Holdings Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 5, 2026, 10:00 AM ET)

ARM Holdings reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) on November 4 after market close. EPS consensus: $0.47; revenue consensus ~$1.38B (Theta Research, Oct 29). ARM is the dominant CPU IP licensor for AI servers (Neoverse), smartphones (Apple A-series, Qualcomm), and edge devices — all three segments scaling strongly in 2026. ARM has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, driven by AI infrastructure capex. No direct Polymarket contract; analogue: S&P 500 Q3 2026 beat rate ~71%. Key risks: export control escalation (UK/US vs. China), hyperscaler capex delays, or HBM4 demand plateau.

68%
Next Week · Predicted for 4. Nov 2026