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Stage 13 is the longest stage of the 2026 Tour de France at 205.8 km (Dole–Belfort) and finishes at Ballon d'Alsace (Cat. 1, 8.8 km at 6.9% gradient). The profile – 150 largely flat kilometres, then Col des Croix (Cat. 3) and Ballon d'Alsace as the final climb – is classic breakaway terrain; the GC field (Pogačar leads after Stage 11 by 3:36 over Vingegaard, Evenepoel third at +4:06) has no incentive for a final offensive. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious, born 2002, Spain) won a TdF stage at Laruns in 2023 and is considered one of the best climber-puncheurs of his generation – exactly the rider profile that wins these uphill finishes in breakaways. No bookmaker odds available for stage winner; individual probability of ~15–18% for a named rider in an open breakaway field is realistic.
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McIlroy is the top favorite to win The Open Championship 2026 at Royal Birkdale — bookmaker odds imply an aggregate win probability of ~18–22%. Birkdale is close to his Northern Irish home and McIlroy arrives in excellent form. Historical winners are almost always inside the top 10 after round 2 — the top-5 hurdle is higher and corresponds to ~50–60% probability. No specific prediction market found for R2 position; calibrated from favorite status and historical hit rate.
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Detry co-leads after R1 at -3 (67) with MacIntyre and Smalley, one shot clear of Scheffler and DeChambeau. He birdied holes 1, 7, 8, and 10. Historically ~40–50% of R1 leaders in majors remain in the top 5 after R2. Pre-tournament odds were ~+1,500–2,000. Deep field directly behind and Friday weather are key risks.
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World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is a primary favourite at Royal Birkdale. After Round 1, Dan Brown, Smalley and Thomas Detry lead at -3 with Scheffler in the chasing pack. As world No. 1 for over 100 consecutive weeks, he is known for major consistency (top-5 rate ~55% in the last eight majors). Bookmaker odds imply a win probability of ~10%, suggesting a top-5 midpoint position after R2 at ~42%. No direct Polymarket market available.
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Sungjae Im closed Round 1 at Royal Birkdale with a 66 (−4; 5 birdies, 1 bogey), co-leading with Dan Brown. The field is tightly bunched: MacIntyre, Detry, Smalley, and Molinari at −3 (67), Scheffler at −2 (68). Im is playing some of his best major golf in years; co-leading after R1 supports a top-5 hold after R2. Headwind: defending champion Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau are all within striking distance. No direct betting market for R2 interim standings available; probability derived from starting position and historical R1-leader hold rates.
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Pogačar is 2:42 ahead after 6 stages. Key summit finish: Stage 10 (July 14, Le Lioran, Bastille Day). On comparable climbs Pogačar typically gains 1.5–2.5 minutes — an additional gain of just 1:18 would push the lead above 4:00. Stages 11–13 are flat to lightly hilly (Vichy–Nevers, Magny-Cours–Chalon, Dole–Belfort); minimal further GC time gains. Polymarket: Pogačar 92% overall win, Vingegaard 5%.
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Stage 13 (July 17, Dole–Belfort, 205.8 km) is the longest stage of the 2026 Tour and a classic 'baroudeur's stage': ~150 km of flat racing precedes the Ballon d'Alsace (8.7 km, avg 6.9%, max 8.8%). This profile favors breakaways that UAE Team Emirates will manage rather than chase — especially since Pogačar holds a 2:42 GC lead over Vingegaard (#2) after Stage 9 and has no reason to contest a baroudeur stage. Pogačar targeted the summit finishes of Stages 10, 14, and 15; on a hilly-flat stage without a classic GC summit finish, his winning is considerably less likely. Historical pattern: baroudeur stages with long flat prefaces regularly end in breakaway victories.
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The 2026 Open takes place July 16–19 at Royal Birkdale. Scheffler is the defending champion (2025 win at –17, 4-stroke margin) and World No. 1 — bookmaker odds imply approximately 16–19% outright win probability (~+400 to +525). He is familiar with the links conditions from last year's defence. After Round 2, the eventual winner leads the board roughly 18–25% of the time; Scheffler as the pre-eminent favourite has an elevated share. Primary competition from McIlroy (+900) and Fleetwood (+2000). Wind and rain conditions increase dispersion.
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The open Cassandra prediction states that Pogačar does NOT win Stage 13. Vingegaard trails by 2:42 in 2nd place after Stage 9; a stage win would be a key signal of closing the gap. The Ballon d'Alsace (~9.5 km, 5.9% avg) summit finish is comparatively shallower than Alpine giants and favors explosive climbers who can attack early or win from small groups. Alternative scenarios: breakaway specialist, Juan Ayuso, or Remco Evenepoel. Vingegaard at 20% is one of the most likely individual winners if Pogačar tactically holds back or has a weak moment.
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Stage 13 (205.8 km, longest of the Tour) finishes after the Ballon d'Alsace (Cat 1, 8.7 km, avg 6.9%, max 8.8%) via a long fast technical descent to Belfort. Cyclingstage.com lists Pidcock as a Tier-1 favourite: 'This is just the sort of day Tom Pidcock relishes.' Wet conditions expected – Pidcock's speciality. Other Tier-1 contenders: Alaphilippe, Mohoric, Vacek. Wout van Aert absent injured. GC riders will ride defensively. No Polymarket market. Pidcock individual win probability: ~22% in an open breakaway field.
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Scheffler is the tournament favorite and is predicted as the overall winner on the platform; his Round 1 target (≤70 strokes) is also open. Bookmaker odds imply ~20–22% win probability. PGA Tour data shows 78% of eventual major winners were in the top 5 after Round 2; a top-3 position for the on-site favorite is estimated at ~60–65%. Royal Birkdale's length (>7,000 yards) suits Scheffler's game (World No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Approach). ESPN Power Rankings place him #1. Risks: weather chaos, bogey-heavy opening rounds can disrupt leaders.
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Stage 12 (July 16) is described by VeloNews as 'the last nailed-on bunch sprint of the entire 2026 Tour' (179.1 km, mostly flat). Top three favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech), Olav Kooij (Decathlon), Biniam Girmay (NSN Cycling). Philipsen is the strongest individual contender (~35%), but a three-way rivalry limits the probability. GC after Stage 9 (July 12): Træen leads in yellow, Pogačar P4 (+7:53). Mads Pedersen won Stage 9.
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Royal Birkdale in Southport is Tommy Fleetwood's home course: he lives in Southport, has known the links since childhood, and shot a legendary closing-round 63 (course record-tying) at the 2017 Open on the same course to finish second. As a top-15 world-ranked links specialist, Fleetwood can fire 4-under-par or better in Round 1 in favourable wind conditions. 4-under is by no means a spectacular score for a top player on his home track. A separate open prediction already forecasts Fleetwood as overall champion; this prediction focuses solely on his Round 1 score. No Polymarket market for individual round scores found.
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McIlroy enters as the second favorite at +780 behind Scheffler (+600). He calls Royal Birkdale 'one of the best courses on the Open rota' and dedicated a special scouting trip to the course. 2017 result on same course: T4 at 5 under par. McIlroy is a links golf specialist. Bookmaker odds imply approximately 50–55% probability for an opening round of 68 or better. Only risk: his form since the Masters has been described as 'good, not great' (ESPN).
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Stage 12 covers 179.1 km from Magny-Cours (Circuit de Nevers) to Chalon-sur-Saône – completely flat, no categorized climbs, a textbook bunch sprint finish. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) leads the points classification with 204 points (as of July 14, 2026) and is this Tour's dominant sprinter. Stage 11 (Vichy–Nevers, July 15) is simultaneously open as a Philipsen prediction – back-to-back flat stages favour a repeat. Main rivals: Biniam Girmay (Intermarché, 145 pts) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~35–40% win probability per flat stage for Philipsen. The stage follows the Bastille Day mountain battle, leaving sprinter squads fresh.
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Scheffler is world number 1 and clear outright favorite (+700). Royal Birkdale rewards precise fairway play – Scheffler's defining strength. Existing R1 predictions cover McIlroy (≤68) and Fleetwood (≤68); Scheffler's specific R1 score is not yet predicted. The ≤70 (2-under) threshold is intentionally set slightly above the more ambitious McIlroy/Fleetwood predictions and is historically achievable for the world's best player on a links course. Caveat: Scheffler had a MC at the Genesis Scottish Open, suggesting an adjustment period.
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McIlroy is the second favorite at +850 (bookmakers imply ~11% tournament win probability) behind Scottie Scheffler (+700). He won his second consecutive Masters title this season and finished T7 at The Open Championship 2025. At his last Open at Royal Birkdale (2017), he finished T4. As a Northern Irishman he has extensive links experience and knows Birkdale well. Royal Birkdale par is 70. A score of ≤70 (par or better) represents a solid, error-free start — no spectacular low round needed. Round 1 wind and lie variability at a major adds uncertainty. Bookmaker odds imply ~50% probability of par or better. No Polymarket market found; by analogy: Scheffler ≤70 is priced at comparable probability in a parallel open prediction.
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Stage 12 runs through flat Burgundy (Magny-Cours–Chalon-sur-Saône, 179.1 km) and is set up for a mass sprint. Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) won today's Stage 11, but his team will conserve resources for Evenepoel tomorrow. Philipsen is the strongest sprinter in the race with a dedicated Alpecin lead-out train. No direct Polymarket quote; bookmaker odds imply ~22–26% for Philipsen in pure TDF sprint stages. Risk: Biniam Girmay, Bryan Coquard, or another Merlier win are viable alternatives.
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Xander Schauffele won The Open Championship 2024 and is one of the strongest links players on tour. Royal Birkdale (par 70) suits him particularly well due to his controlled ball flight and low trajectory. Among the 156-player field, open predictions already cover McIlroy (≤70 round 1) and Scheffler (≤70 round 1) – Schauffele is in the same performance tier but is not the subject of any existing prediction. With moderate wind on the Lancashire coast (forecast: 18–22 km/h), par or better is realistic for a major champion. No Polymarket market specifically for Schauffele round 1 found. Calibration: 42% based on player tier, course profile, and historical R1 performance of top-10 world-ranked players at majors.
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The field includes nearly all top-10 world-ranked players (Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele, Morikawa). Royal Birkdale plays at par 70; course record 63 (Watson, 1983). In elite fields, -5 or better is statistically achieved by at least one player in Major R1 almost every time. No Polymarket/Kalshi markets found for this event. Own historical calibration: ~55%.