⚽ Sports · Next Week

Tour de France 2026 Stage 12 (Magny-Cours–Chalon-sur-Saône, July 16): Jasper Philipsen wins the bunch sprint

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. July 2026 · Predicted for 16. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

38%

Stage 12 covers 179.1 km from Magny-Cours (Circuit de Nevers) to Chalon-sur-Saône – completely flat, no categorized climbs, a textbook bunch sprint finish. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) leads the points classification with 204 points (as of July 14, 2026) and is this Tour's dominant sprinter. Stage 11 (Vichy–Nevers, July 15) is simultaneously open as a Philipsen prediction – back-to-back flat stages favour a repeat. Main rivals: Biniam Girmay (Intermarché, 145 pts) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek). Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~35–40% win probability per flat stage for Philipsen. The stage follows the Bastille Day mountain battle, leaving sprinter squads fresh.

Data basis for this prediction

TdF 2026 Punktewertung: Philipsen 204 Pkt, Girmay 145 Pkt (Stand 14.07.2026) – NBC Sports / Cyclingnews
Etappe 12 Streckenprofil: 179,1 km, Magny-Cours–Chalon-sur-Saône, keine Bergwertungen – cyclingstage.com / olympics.com
Aggregierte Buchmacherquoten: Philipsen ~35–40 % je Sprintetappe (Stand 14.07.2026)

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Wærenskjold (Uno-X) gewann den Massensprint der Etappe 12, nicht Philipsen. Quelle: Cyclingnews / Wikipedia 2026 Tour de France

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