Tadej Pogačar does not win Stage 13 of the 2026 Tour de France (Dole–Belfort, Ballon d'Alsace, 205.8 km, July 17)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 17. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Stage 13 (July 17, Dole–Belfort, 205.8 km) is the longest stage of the 2026 Tour and a classic 'baroudeur's stage': ~150 km of flat racing precedes the Ballon d'Alsace (8.7 km, avg 6.9%, max 8.8%). This profile favors breakaways that UAE Team Emirates will manage rather than chase — especially since Pogačar holds a 2:42 GC lead over Vingegaard (#2) after Stage 9 and has no reason to contest a baroudeur stage. Pogačar targeted the summit finishes of Stages 10, 14, and 15; on a hilly-flat stage without a classic GC summit finish, his winning is considerably less likely. Historical pattern: baroudeur stages with long flat prefaces regularly end in breakaway victories.
Data basis for this prediction
- procyclingstats.com Stage 13 TdF 2026 Profile: 205,8 km, Ballon d'Alsace 8,7 km Ø 6,9 %
- franceletour.com Stage 13 Preview: 'baroudeur's stage, golden breakaway chance' (12.07.2026)
- Cyclingnews TdF 2026 GC nach Etappe 9: Pogačar P1, Vingegaard +2:42, del Toro +3:27 (12.07.2026)
- NBC Sports TdF 2026 Route: Stage 10/14/15 als Pogačar-Bergetappen identifiziert
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Oscar Piastri starts from P2 (front row) after McLaren's front-row qualifying lockout on July 12, 2026. With a double lockout in a dominant car, a top-3 finish is highly likely: Piastri either wins (if Norris retires) or finishes second. Even with a poor start, he would need to be overtaken by Leclerc (P3), Verstappen (P4), and others AND fail to reclaim P3 — unlikely absent extreme wet-race chaos. Bookmaker odds imply >70% for a Piastri podium given his qualifying position.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Lando Norris claimed pole position on July 12, 2026, with teammate Oscar Piastri completing a McLaren front-row lockout at Spa-Francorchamps. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli and Lewis Hamilton were both eliminated in Q1 and will start near the back; Charles Leclerc qualified third, Max Verstappen fourth. With McLaren dominant in qualifying and key rivals compromised, bookmaker odds imply ~60–65% for Norris to win. Historical pole-to-win rate at Spa is 35–50%; a front-row lockout combined with main rivals starting from the back pushes the probability notably higher. Main risks: rain, safety car chaos, mechanical failure.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
The semi-final between Argentina and England takes place on July 15, 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kalshi prices England at 52¢ and Argentina at 50¢ to advance — near dead heat. France leads tournament futures at ~40% on Kalshi/Polymarket. As defending champion, Argentina survived the quarterfinal vs. 10-man Switzerland (3–1 aet, Álvarez + Martínez late goal). England beat Norway 2–1 aet. Slight edge to Argentina as defending champion with proven knockout experience and depth.