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Tadej Pogačar does not win Stage 13 of the 2026 Tour de France (Dole–Belfort, Ballon d'Alsace, 205.8 km, July 17)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 17. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

Stage 13 (July 17, Dole–Belfort, 205.8 km) is the longest stage of the 2026 Tour and a classic 'baroudeur's stage': ~150 km of flat racing precedes the Ballon d'Alsace (8.7 km, avg 6.9%, max 8.8%). This profile favors breakaways that UAE Team Emirates will manage rather than chase — especially since Pogačar holds a 2:42 GC lead over Vingegaard (#2) after Stage 9 and has no reason to contest a baroudeur stage. Pogačar targeted the summit finishes of Stages 10, 14, and 15; on a hilly-flat stage without a classic GC summit finish, his winning is considerably less likely. Historical pattern: baroudeur stages with long flat prefaces regularly end in breakaway victories.

Data basis for this prediction

procyclingstats.com Stage 13 TdF 2026 Profile: 205,8 km, Ballon d'Alsace 8,7 km Ø 6,9 %
franceletour.com Stage 13 Preview: 'baroudeur's stage, golden breakaway chance' (12.07.2026)
Cyclingnews TdF 2026 GC nach Etappe 9: Pogačar P1, Vingegaard +2:42, del Toro +3:27 (12.07.2026)
NBC Sports TdF 2026 Route: Stage 10/14/15 als Pogačar-Bergetappen identifiziert

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tadej Pogačar gewann Etappe 13 der Tour de France 2026 nicht – Sieger war Mathieu van der Poel. Vorhersage (Pogačar gewinnt NICHT) bestätigt. Quellen: ProCyclingStats, Rouleur

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