💻 Technology
Hit
✦ AI
Polymarket gives an 82% probability that Nvidia holds the largest market capitalization of any listed company at end of July 2026 (Apple as closest challenger at 11%). Nvidia stock at ~$202.80 (July 9). Late July earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet – strong AI capex guidance – directly support Nvidia chip demand. Source: Polymarket Stocks, Goldman Sachs / TradingKey, as of July 10, 2026.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The Fed kept rates unchanged at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a confirmed hawk and has not signaled any rate cut without a sustained decline in inflation. The July meeting (July 29) will be held without new economic projections – not a typical time for policy changes. Despite pressure from President Trump, market expectations per LBBW analysis are clearly aligned with unchanged rates.
🏛️ Politics
Miss
✦ AI
The EU Parliament passed the Chat Control regulation on July 9, 2026 via fast-track procedure (414 vs. 224 votes). However, entry into force requires a qualified majority in the EU Council. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and Finland have blocked the measure for years due to data protection and encryption concerns. All previous Chat Control drafts (2022, 2023, 2024) failed in the Council – the pattern continues.
💻 Technology
Miss
✦ AI
After months of tug-of-war between industry lobbyists and consumer advocates, the revised AI Liability Directive comes to a vote. Political pressure following several high-profile AI failures in EU member states has accelerated the timeline.
📈 Economy
Miss
✦ AI
The European Central Bank continues its easing cycle that began in autumn 2024. Weak industrial output in Germany and France, combined with declining core inflation, gives the ECB Governing Council majority sufficient room for another 25 basis-point cut.
📈 Economy
Miss
Based on the current rate-cutting cycle and weak eurozone inflation, another rate cut is likely.