Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Vänsterpartiet (V) wins more than 7.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. August 2026
·
Predicted for 13. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
Vänsterpartiet polls at 7.4% in the current PolitPro aggregate (as of 25 Aug 2026) — clearly above the 7.0% threshold. Ipsos May 2026 shows the party at 8%, SCB May 2026 at 8.6% (±0.8%). All available polls consistently place V above 7.0%. Historically Vänsterpartiet tends to slightly underperform its poll numbers on election day (typically –0.5 to –1 pp), which at a 7.4% aggregate still leaves the 7% threshold likely intact. No Polymarket or Metaculus market found for this specific threshold. Not covered by existing open predictions.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro.eu Aggregate (25.08.2026): Vänsterpartiet 7,4% Trendwert
- Ipsos Schweden Mai 2026: Vänsterpartiet 8,0%
- SCB Partisympatiundersökning Mai 2026: Vänsterpartiet 8,6% ± 0,8%
- Wikipedia: 2026 Swedish general election – Riksdag-Wahl 13. September 2026
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.