Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives more than 27.0% of votes cast
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls for the MV state election show the SPD under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig at 29% (INSA, August 13, 2026; confirmed by Infratest dimap/NDR, July 2026: also 29%). Schwesig's strong regional brand equity cushions the national SPD slump (nationally ~20–23%) significantly. In 2021, MV's SPD won 39.6%; even a substantial decline leaves it above 27%. Open predictions: AfD >35%, CDU <12% in MV. No Polymarket market found for MV individual results.
Data basis for this prediction
- SPD MV-Landtagswahl 2021: 39,6% (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
- INSA-Umfrage MV 13.08.2026: SPD 29% (Wahlrecht.de/Dawum.de)
- Infratest dimap/NDR MV-Umfrage Juli 2026: SPD ebenfalls 29% (Dawum.de)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.