📈 Economy · Next Month

ECB raises deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 (confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. August 2026 · Predicted for 10. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

The ECB holds its next rate-setting meeting on September 10, 2026 (decision 14:15 CET). The deposit rate stands at 2.25% following the July 23, 2026 meeting. CNBC reported on July 23, 2026 that a September hike is 'almost fully priced in'. President Lagarde warned inflation will remain 'well above target' through H1 2027, fueled by elevated energy prices from the Hormuz crisis. MUFG Research (16.07.2026) cites +25 bps in September as its base case. Market consensus implies 70–75% probability for a move to 2.50%.

Data basis for this prediction

CNBC (23.07.2026): 'Traders see September rate hike as ECB mulls energy price spike'
ECB Pressemitteilung 23.07.2026: Einlagensatz auf 2,25 %; nächste Sitzung 10.09.2026 (ecb.europa.eu)
MUFG Research (16.07.2026): Basisszenario +25 bps September-EZB
centralbank.watch: ECB Meeting Calendar 2026 – September 10

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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