Democratic Party wins majority in US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (at least 218 seats, Election Day November 3, 2026, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. October 2026
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Predicted for 4. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket sees 91.5% for a Democratic House majority (as of October 23, 2026); Kalshi likewise at 91.0%. Cook Political Report shifted 18 House races toward Democrats on October 9, 2026, projecting a net gain of 9-19 seats (only +5 needed). Drivers: Trump approval below 40%, rising gas prices following the Iran conflict (Feb. 2026), and Republican budget rejection in swing districts. Historically, the opposition party gains an average of 26 seats in the first midterm. Current composition: Democrats 213, Republicans 222.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 91,5% (Stand 23. Oktober 2026, polymarket.com)
- Kalshi: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 91,0% (Stand 23. Oktober 2026, kalshi.com / defirate.com)
- Cook Political Report: 18 House-Rennen zu Demokraten verschoben, Nettowon +9 bis +19 Sitze projiziert (9. Oktober 2026)
- Aktuelle Sitzverteilung: Demokraten 213, Republikaner 222 (Stand Oktober 2026, cnbc.com)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Demokraten gewannen die Mehrheit im US-Repräsentantenhaus (Projektion >218 Sitze, geschätzt ~259). Bestätigt durch CBS News, Yahoo News und NBC News am Wahlergebnistag (3./4. November 2026).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.