Republicans retain their majority in the US House of Representatives after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (confirmed by AP, Reuters, or NYT results coverage)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 4. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Kalshi prices Democrats at 78% to win the House majority — implying Republicans retain: ~22%. Current composition: Republicans 218 seats vs. Democrats 215 (as of July 24, 2026, BGOV). Historically the president's party loses House seats in midterms; the razor-thin Republican majority increases flip risk. Counter-factors: GOP gerrymandering in swing districts, potential economic upside. Note: the existing open prediction covers only the Senate (Democrats winning ≥51 seats), not the House. Kalshi sees 78% for Democrats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi prediction markets (via 270towin.com): Democrats 78% to win House majority in 2026 midterms (Juli 2026, $18,9 Mio. Handelsvolumen)
- Bloomberg Government (bgov.com): US House balance of power — Republicans 218, Democrats 215, 1 vacancy (24. Juli 2026)
- FiveThirtyEight/historical midterm data: presidential party averages –25 House seats in midterm elections
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Republikaner verloren die Mehrheit im Repräsentantenhaus. Demokraten flippten zahlreiche Sitze in NC, PA, TX, MI, NY u.a. Bestätigt durch AP/NBC/CBS.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.