🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Vänsterpartiet (V, Sweden) wins more than 6.5% of valid votes in the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 3. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

Latest polling: Demoskop August 24, 2026 → 6.8%; PolitPro Election Trend August 28, 2026 → 7.3%. The 6.5% threshold sits clearly below the polling average (~7.1%). Risk factors: Scandinavian left-wing parties tend to experience a slight pre-election squeeze toward Social Democrats (S, 30.7%) — however, this effect is historically rarely larger than 0.5–1.0 percentage points. PolitPro projects V at 27 seats (out of 349), implying >7.0%. No direct Polymarket market on V; Metaculus and PolitPro imply the 4% threshold will be surpassed by a wide margin.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop Umfrage 24. August 2026: Vänsterpartiet 6,8 % (politpro.eu/sweden)
PolitPro Election Trend 28. August 2026: V 7,3 %, 27 Mandate — politpro.eu/sweden/election
Wikipedia Opinion Polling 2026 Swedish General Election (en.wikipedia.org, August 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Vänsterpartiet erzielte laut Valmyndighetens preliminärem Ergebnis (veröffentlicht 17. September 2026) 8,3 % der abgegebenen Stimmen (526.521 Stimmen) und gewann 30 Riksdag-Sitze. Damit übertraf die Partei die Schwelle von 6,5 % deutlich – sogar den prognostizierten Polling-Mittelwert von ~7,1 %. Der befürchtete 'Squeeze'-Effekt zugunsten der Sozialdemokraten trat nicht ein; V legte im Vergleich zur Wahl 2022 (6,8 %) zu. Quellen: Valmyndigheten (val.se), SVT Valresultat 2026.

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