Vänsterpartiet (V, Sweden) wins more than 7.0% of votes at the Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 31. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Three recent polls yield a weighted average of ~7.2% for V: Demoskop Aug 24 at 6.8%, PolitPro trend Aug 28 at 7.3%, Ipsos May 25 at 8.0%. No Polymarket market for V vote share. With a mean of 7.2% and typical polling uncertainty of ±1.5%, probability of >7.0% is ~62%. Vänsterpartiet is not covered in existing open predictions (S, SD, M, KD, L, C, MP already covered).
Data basis for this prediction
- Demoskop Sverige 2026-Umfrage (24. Aug. 2026): V 6,8 % – 25 Sitze (PolitPro.eu)
- PolitPro Wahltrend Schweden (28. Aug. 2026): V 7,3 % – 27 Sitze (PolitPro.eu)
- Ipsos Schweden-Umfrage (25. Mai 2026): V 8 % – 29 Sitze (PolitPro.eu)
Verdict: Hit
Vänsterpartiet erhielt laut Valmyndigheten-Vorläufigresultat (17. Sept. 2026, val.se) und übereinstimmenden Quellen (SVT Valun-Prognose, PolitPro mit 95 % ausgezählter Stimmen) ca. 8,0–8,3 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 7,0 %. Verglichen mit 6,8 % bei der Wahl 2022 gewann V rund 1,2–1,5 Prozentpunkte hinzu und wurde viertgrößte Partei im Riksdag (30 Mandate). Quellen: val.se (Pressemitteilung 2026-09-17, Vorläufiges Ergebnis), SVT Valresultat 2026 (valresultat.svt.se/2026/), PolitPro Sweden Election 2026 (politpro.eu/en/sweden/election/parliament/2026).
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