🏛️ Politics · Next Year

US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (at least 218 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

85%

Polymarket implies 88.5% probability of Democrats winning the House in 2026. Historically, the governing party loses ~26 House seats; the current slim Republican majority (~217–212) means a net swing of 5–7 seats flips control. Generic ballot shows Democrats ahead by 4–6 points. Risks: Republican gerrymandering (Texas, Florida, Georgia), high incumbency retention, Trump base turnout. Market anchor at 88.5% is the primary calibration; deviation would require a marked economic upswing and rising Trump approval.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Democrats win US House 2026 — 88,5 % (Stand 23. August 2026, polymarket.com)
Cook Political Report / Sabato's Crystal Ball: House race ratings August 2026 — Mehrheit der Wettbewerbssitze kippt zu Democrats
Historische Midterm-Verluste der Regierungspartei: Durchschnitt −26 Sitze (1946–2022, US House Archives)
Generic Ballot: Demokraten +4–6 Pp (RealClearPolitics/FiveThirtyEight-Aggregat, August 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): FDP falls below 5.0% of valid votes and fails to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.

92%

Next Week · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Liberalerna (L) falls below 4.0% and fails to clear the parliamentary threshold (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.

88%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Sep 2026