US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meet bilaterally on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York (September 22–27, 2026, confirmed by White House or Reuters by September 28, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
·
Predicted for 27. September 2026
·
Based on: Ongoing Event
The high-level week of the 81st UN General Assembly runs September 22–27, 2026 in New York. Zelensky has regularly attended UNGA since 2022 and uses it intensively for bilateral meetings with Western leaders. Trump, as US president, traditionally delivers remarks to the General Assembly. Given ongoing US mediation efforts toward a Ukraine ceasefire and congressional pressure from the open Ukraine aid package prediction, a Trump-Zelensky bilateral in New York is highly plausible. The ongoing US-Iran conflict (day ~200) may burden Trump's agenda but simultaneously increases the need for broad diplomatic coordination. Metaculus rates comparable summit encounters during active crises at 60–70%. No specific Polymarket market found for this meeting.
Data basis for this prediction
- UN General Assembly: 81. Sitzung, Hochrangige Debatte, 22.–27. September 2026, New York (UN-Kalender)
- Reuters: Selensky UNGA-Teilnahme und bilaterale Gespräche mit Staatschefs, Muster seit 2022
- White House / Reuters: Trump Ukraine-Friedensvermittlung und UNGA-Agenda, September 2026
- Metaculus: Bilaterale Treffen in aktiven Konflikten, Basisrate ~65 % bei gleichzeitiger UNGA-Präsenz
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
PolitPro Election Trend (Sept 17, 2026) puts LDPR under Leonid Slutsky at 12.8% (= 63 seats). The 10.0% threshold is 2.8 points below the survey figure. Even significant state-managed count adjustments in favor of United Russia are unlikely to push LDPR below 10%, as it also holds direct-mandate seats. United Russia polled at 46% (existing >47% prediction thus at risk), KPRF at 15.8%. No Polymarket market available.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current INSA election trend (Europe Elects, Sept 8–15, 2026) puts SPD at 32–37% in MV, with AfD slightly ahead at 36–37%. SPD governed MV for decades; even as runner-up, every poll is well above 29%. Only a historically unprecedented collapse of 3–8 points from all recent surveys would miss this threshold. No prediction market available; conservative floor derived from polling corridor.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls consistently show Die Linke in MV well above the 8.5% threshold: INSA (Sep 8–15) 10%, Infratest dimap (Sep 9) 9%, Forsa (Aug 21–27) 11%, pollytix (Sep 8–9) 12%; weighted trend average 10.2%. Despite the BSW split (2024), Die Linke retains a stable voter base in MV. The 1.7 percentage point buffer between threshold and poll average acts as a cushion; even a full standard deviation downward swing (±2–3pp historical) would leave the result above 8.5%. Polymarket has no dedicated line for Die Linke's vote share; the MV election-winner market has SPD at 51 cents (leading).