US Midterms 2026 (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
In US midterm elections, the incumbent president's party historically loses seats in the House in ~95% of cases (avg. –28 seats since 1946). Trump's approval ratings recently stood below 45%, historically correlating with above-average losses. Democrats need a net gain of approximately 7–8 seats against the current Republican majority. Polymarket assigns 65% to a Democratic Senate majority (as of Sept 22, 2026, Vol. USD 2.96M) — no direct House quote was available. Structural factors are comparably strong; own calibration: 54%. This prediction is independent of the open Senate prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Senat 2026 bei 65 % (Stand 22.09.2026, Vol. 2,96 Mio. USD)
- ActionNetwork / Bloomberg: Kalshi & Polymarket 2026-Midterm-Aktivität, September 2026
- Congressional Research Service: Präsidentenpartei verliert Repräsentantenhaussitze in ~95 % aller Midterm-Wahlen seit 1946
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.