US Midterms 2026 (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 22. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
In US midterm elections, the incumbent president's party historically loses seats in the House in ~95% of cases (avg. –28 seats since 1946). Trump's approval ratings recently stood below 45%, historically correlating with above-average losses. Democrats need a net gain of approximately 7–8 seats against the current Republican majority. Polymarket assigns 65% to a Democratic Senate majority (as of Sept 22, 2026, Vol. USD 2.96M) — no direct House quote was available. Structural factors are comparably strong; own calibration: 54%. This prediction is independent of the open Senate prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Senat 2026 bei 65 % (Stand 22.09.2026, Vol. 2,96 Mio. USD)
- ActionNetwork / Bloomberg: Kalshi & Polymarket 2026-Midterm-Aktivität, September 2026
- Congressional Research Service: Präsidentenpartei verliert Repräsentantenhaussitze in ~95 % aller Midterm-Wahlen seit 1946
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The four Knesset elections since 2019 all saw turnout between 67.4% (2021, historic low due to Arab voter fatigue) and 70.6% (2022). The current wartime context (Iran conflict, ongoing security threats) historically mobilises broader population segments; the 2022 election with 70.6% also took place under elevated security conditions. A figure above 68% was achieved in 3 of the last 4 elections. Downside risk: persistent Arab community mobilisation challenges or security concerns in border areas could dampen participation. No direct prediction market available.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Aggregated prediction markets (Polymarket/Edgex aggregate, as of September 2026) price Bolsonaro Jr. at 41% and Lula at 36% for overall election victory. Since the platform's open prediction forecasts Lula's first-round share at >42% (but <50%), a runoff on October 25 is near-certain. Normalized for the head-to-head: Bolsonaro Jr. ~53% vs. Lula ~47%. Quaest runoff polling (August 2026): Lula 43% vs. Bolsonaro Jr. 40% — within margin of error. Factors for Bolsonaro Jr.: right-wing runoff consolidation (2022 pattern), Lula approval below 40%, age factor (Lula, 80). Polymarket prices Bolsonaro Jr. at 41%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Datafolha (September 15–17, 2026) shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in round one — one point above the threshold. AtlasIntel (Sept. 2026) shows him significantly higher at 41.7%. Most aggregates fall between 36% and 42%. Historically, the Bolsonaro bloc displayed a 'shy voter' effect: Jair Bolsonaro outperformed his polls by ~2pp in 2022. AtlasIntel has Flávio actually leading the runoff 47.2% vs. Lula's 46.8%. Falling below 35% would represent a substantial polling miss. No direct Polymarket market found for Bolsonaro's exact vote share; own estimate 63%.