🏛️ Politics · Next Year

US Midterms 2026 (3 November 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives with at least 218 of 435 seats (confirmed by AP or NBC News by 7 November 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

76%

Polymarket (as of 17 September 2026) prices a full Democratic Sweep (both chambers) at 60% and the 'Republican Senate / Democratic House' scenario at 31%, implying a total probability of ~91% for a Democratic House win. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model shows Democrats with a generic ballot advantage of D+7 to D+12 and Trump approval at ~38%; historically the president's party loses the House at such readings (2006: D+31 seats, 2018: D+41 seats). This prediction focuses exclusively on the House and is consistent with the open Cassandra forecast 'Democrats win Senate majority ≥51 seats'. Calibrated value 76% — conservatively below Polymarket's implied ~91% to account for polling errors and potential late swings.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket US Midterms 2026: Dem Sweep 60 %, R Senate/D House 31 %, R Sweep 11 % (17.09.2026)
Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin: Demokraten favorisiert für beide Kammern, Generic Ballot D+7–12 (17.09.2026)
Trump-Zustimmungsrate ~38 % (Newsweek, 17.09.2026)
Historische Midterm-Muster: Approval < 40 % → Repräsentantenhaus-Verlust der Regierungspartei (FiveThirtyEight-Archiv)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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