US Midterms 2026 (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins House majority with at least 218 seats (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Polymarket prices Democrat House majority at 88–90.5% (as of September 19, 2026). Generic Congressional Ballot shows Democrats leading D+7 to D+12; Trump's approval sits around 38% per aggregators. Historically the president's party loses ~26 House seats in midterms — current factors (Iran war, economy, unpopularity) amplify this trend significantly. Democrats need a net gain of ~5 seats for a majority of 218. I calibrate at 84% (slight discount to Polymarket's 88–90.5% for long-horizon uncertainty). The existing open prediction covers only the Senate — the House is a separate event, no duplicate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Which party will win the House in 2026?' – Demokraten 88–90,5 % (Stand 19.09.2026)
- Pro.EdgeX Exchange: 'Polymarket Prices Democrats at 88% to Win House in 2026 Midterms' (19.09.2026)
- Yahoo News: Generic Congressional Ballot D+7 bis D+12 (RealClearPolitics Aggregator, September 2026)
- Metaculus / Polymarket: Trumps Zustimmungswert ~38 % (Aggregator-Durchschnitt, September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.