🏛️ Politics · Next Year

US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Republican Party retains its majority in the US Senate (at least 50 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. August 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

58%

Kalshi prediction market: Democratic Senate majority at 46.5 cents, implying ~53.5% probability of Republican control. Polymarket (August 26, 2026): 'D Sweep' 48%, 'R Senate + D House' 39%, 'R Sweep' 12% – implying ~51% probability of Republican Senate combined. The Senate map heavily favors Republicans: 22 Republican vs. 13 Democratic seats are up for election; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats while defending exposed seats (Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire). 2026 special elections show ~+10pp Democratic swing vs. 2024, likely insufficient for the Senate. We estimate 58%, slightly above the Kalshi market.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: Demokraten 46,5 ¢ für Senatsmehrheit → ~53,5 % Republikanisch (270toWin / Kalshi, 26.08.2026)
Polymarket: Balance of Power 2026 – D Sweep 48 %, R Senate+D House 39 %, R Sweep 12 % (26.08.2026)
Wikipedia: 2026 US Senate Elections – 22 R vs. 13 D Sitze auf dem Spiel (abgerufen 26.08.2026)
OddsShopper / Kalshi: Race-by-Race 2026 Senate Odds – NC, GA, IA als Schlüsselrennen (26.08.2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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