US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Republican Party retains its majority in the US Senate (at least 50 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi prediction market: Democratic Senate majority at 46.5 cents, implying ~53.5% probability of Republican control. Polymarket (August 26, 2026): 'D Sweep' 48%, 'R Senate + D House' 39%, 'R Sweep' 12% – implying ~51% probability of Republican Senate combined. The Senate map heavily favors Republicans: 22 Republican vs. 13 Democratic seats are up for election; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats while defending exposed seats (Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire). 2026 special elections show ~+10pp Democratic swing vs. 2024, likely insufficient for the Senate. We estimate 58%, slightly above the Kalshi market.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Demokraten 46,5 ¢ für Senatsmehrheit → ~53,5 % Republikanisch (270toWin / Kalshi, 26.08.2026)
- Polymarket: Balance of Power 2026 – D Sweep 48 %, R Senate+D House 39 %, R Sweep 12 % (26.08.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Senate Elections – 22 R vs. 13 D Sitze auf dem Spiel (abgerufen 26.08.2026)
- OddsShopper / Kalshi: Race-by-Race 2026 Senate Odds – NC, GA, IA als Schlüsselrennen (26.08.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
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🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.