🏛️ Politics · Next Year

US Midterm elections (November 3, 2026): Democrats win a majority in the US Senate (net gain of at least four seats from Republicans, confirmed by AP or NBC by November 4, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

52%

Polymarket shows a 'Democratic Sweep' (Democrats control both chambers) at 52% probability (as of September 9, 2026, $11M trading volume). Since a Democratic Senate gain only occurs in the sweep scenario per Polymarket's model, this implies Senate majority probability of ~52%. Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) sees the Senate at 50:50. Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held seats; Republicans defend 22 of 35 seats on the ballot, including Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, where recent polls show Democrats in reach. President Trump's ~38% approval and economic conditions favor an elevated midterm counter-vote.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Balance of Power 2026: Democratic Sweep 52 %, R Senate D House 35 %, R Sweep 12 % (Stand: 9. September 2026, $11 Mio. Handelsvolumen)
Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver): US-Senat-Rennen 50:50 (September 2026)
Cook Political Report / 270toWin: 22 republikanische Senatssitze zur Wahl stehend; D müssen netto +4 gewinnen (September 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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