US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 8. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Democrats are clear favorites to win the House majority according to Polymarket at ~88% (Democratic sweep 52% + D-House/R-Senate 36% = 88%). President Trump's approval ratings are in the late 30s, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6-7 points. Historically, the president's party loses ~26 House seats on average in midterms. $11M is traded on Polymarket for this event. Confirmation via AP or NYT by November 4, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen Repräsentantenhaus 2026 impliziert ~88 % (D-Sweep 52 % + D-Haus/R-Senat 36 %, $11 Mio. Volumen, Stand 8. September 2026)
- Generic Ballot: Demokraten +6–7 Punkte (aggregierte Umfragen, Frühherbst 2026)
- Trumps Zustimmungswerte: ~38 % (aggregiert, Stand September 2026)
- Historischer Midterm-Schnitt: Partei des Präsidenten verliert im Schnitt 26 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus (Brookings Institution)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.