US Midterm Elections (3 November 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (net at least 218 of 435 seats, confirmed by AP or NBC News by 5 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
·
Predicted for 3. November 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Polymarket prices Democratic Senate control at 54% (as of 13 September 2026). The House of Representatives is a separate, often contrarian market. Historical average since 1946: the president's party loses a net ~24 House seats at midterms — a strong structural signal favouring Democrats (against a Trump Republican majority). Cook Political Report flags ~35–40 toss-up districts. A Democratic House majority is a plausible but not base-case scenario; implied market probability derived from Senate data and historical patterns: approx. 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten US-Senat 2026: 54 % (Stand 13. Sep. 2026)
- Historische Midterm House-Verluste Präsidentenpartei: ⌀ –24 Sitze seit 1946 (FiveThirtyEight-Archiv)
- Cook Political Report: ~35–40 Toss-up House-Distrikte (Aug./Sep. 2026)
- Polymarket-Handelvolumen US-Senat 2026: 4,3 Mio. USD (Stand Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Existing Cassandra predictions already confirm: Die Linke will be the strongest party in Berlin (more votes than CDU, itself projected above 16.5%). Infratest dimap polls (Berlin, August 2026) put Die Linke at 27–29%, Forsa at 26–28%. The 25% threshold sits at the lower bound of these estimates. Polymarket carries no specific market quote for Berlin detail values. Key risk: weak youth-voter mobilisation or fragmentation towards BSW/Greens could push Die Linke just below 25%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Moderaterna under PM Ulf Kristersson polled 17.4–18.4% in final pre-election surveys: Infostat (September 1): 17.5%; Indikator Opinion (September 4): 18.4%; PolitPro aggregate: 17.4%. The 17.0% threshold is below all current estimates. No Cassandra duplicate: SD, S, C, V, L, KD and MP are covered — but not M. Typical ±1.5–2% polling error could push M slightly below the threshold, but stable conservative voter loyalty argues against it.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 53% for Democrats (Senate control, as of September 7, 2026), Kalshi 47.5% (September 2026), Nate Silver/Silver Bulletin 56.6% (as of September 11, 2026). Calibrated anchor: ~52%. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. 23 Republican seats (Class 3, last elected 2020) are up for election. Key races: Maine (Collins, R, vulnerable), North Carolina (open seat), Ohio (special election, competitive), Alaska (Peltola, D). Midterm losses for the ruling party (Republicans/Trump), high inflation and Iran war costs strengthen Democratic momentum narrative. Defensive risks for Democrats: Georgia (Ossoff, narrow 2020 win) and Michigan (Peters retiring).