US Midterm Elections (3 November 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (net at least 218 of 435 seats, confirmed by AP or NBC News by 5 November 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket prices Democratic Senate control at 54% (as of 13 September 2026). The House of Representatives is a separate, often contrarian market. Historical average since 1946: the president's party loses a net ~24 House seats at midterms — a strong structural signal favouring Democrats (against a Trump Republican majority). Cook Political Report flags ~35–40 toss-up districts. A Democratic House majority is a plausible but not base-case scenario; implied market probability derived from Senate data and historical patterns: approx. 42%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Demokraten US-Senat 2026: 54 % (Stand 13. Sep. 2026)
- Historische Midterm House-Verluste Präsidentenpartei: ⌀ –24 Sitze seit 1946 (FiveThirtyEight-Archiv)
- Cook Political Report: ~35–40 Toss-up House-Distrikte (Aug./Sep. 2026)
- Polymarket-Handelvolumen US-Senat 2026: 4,3 Mio. USD (Stand Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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