US Congress avoids government shutdown at the October 1, 2026 fiscal year deadline
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 1. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket sees 84% probability of NO shutdown; Kalshi 85–86% NO (Kalshi volume: $179,500; as of Sep 27, 2026). Contracts have fallen from ~35% YES in July 2026 to 14–16% YES — a strong signal for a continuing resolution (CR). Historically, over 70% of threatened US shutdowns were averted in the final 72 hours. Market nuance: Kalshi counts a midnight technical gap as a shutdown; Polymarket requires a sustained multi-hour halt. Forecast follows the market anchor.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 84 % NO Government Shutdown 1. Oktober 2026 (Stand 27.09.2026)
- Kalshi: ~86 % NO Shutdown, $179.500 Volumen (Stand 27.09.2026)
- Cryptonews: Government Shutdown Odds – Kalshi vs. Polymarket (27.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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