UK Autumn Budget 2026 (October 28, 2026): Chancellor John Healey announces an increase of the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) higher rate to at least 28% (currently 24%, confirmed by HM Treasury or BBC by October 29, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
PM Burnham programmatically stated: 'We over-tax work and under-tax wealth.' Healey delivers Labour's first budget Oct 28, having explicitly ruled out income tax, VAT, and NI rises — making CGT the logical revenue vehicle. Grant Thornton and Charles Russell Speechlys identify CGT as the most likely reform target. Current higher rate: 24% (raised from 20% by Reeves in Oct 2024). Any move toward income tax rate alignment (upper rate 40%) implies ≥28%. No direct Polymarket market; own estimate: 58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Grant Thornton UK (27.09.2026): 'Autumn Budget 2026 predictions — CGT among tax changes to watch'
- Charles Russell Speechlys (27.09.2026): 'Autumn Budget 2026: Possible CGT changes and pre-budget planning'
- Which.co.uk (27.09.2026): Datum 28. Oktober 2026 bestätigt, Chancellor John Healey (Burnham-Regierung)
- WealthBriefing (27.09.2026): Burnham-Zitat über Vermögensbesteuerung; CGT-Erhöhung als Hauptszenario
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Bosnia-Herzegovina holds general elections on October 4, 2026. In Republika Srpska, SNSD has dominated the National Assembly since 2006. In the 2025 RS special presidential election, SNSD narrowly won 50.5% vs. SDS 48.1% — a clear sign of a tighter political landscape. The Troika–SNSD coalition collapsed in January 2025 after two EU accession laws failed, weakening SNSD's position. For the National Assembly (proportional multi-party system), SNSD has structurally broader support than in direct elections; however, the race remains competitive. No Polymarket market found. Europinion.uk characterises it as a 'familiar deadlock' — SNSD remains the largest force, without a majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
President Aleksandar Vučić called snap parliamentary elections in Serbia for October 25, 2026. The SNS has held government continuously since 2012 and most recently received 46.1% of the vote in December 2023. The 2025/26 student movement has mobilized the opposition and is expected to push the SNS vote share to ~35–42%, but no unified opposition bloc has emerged. No direct Polymarket market available; Metaculus assigns 59–87% to the structurally dominant incumbent bloc in US elections, serving as a general incumbency reference. The SNS winning the most seats is the base case; whether with an outright majority or needing coalition partners remains uncertain.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Datafolha (September 22–23, 2026): Lula 40%, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 36%. Veritá (September 20, 2026): technical tie (Bolsonaro 38.9% vs. Lula 38.4%). Polymarket currently prices Bolsonaro's overall win probability at 56.2% and Lula's at 43% — this refers to the final outcome, not first-round rank. Since the open platform forecast has the race going to a runoff on October 25 (which Lula wins), Lula finishing first in round one is fully consistent with all existing platform forecasts. Lula leads by four percentage points in the most recent major poll.