Serbian snap parliamentary election (October 25, 2026): Srpska napredna stranka (SNS) wins the most seats in parliament
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
President Aleksandar Vučić called snap parliamentary elections in Serbia for October 25, 2026. The SNS has held government continuously since 2012 and most recently received 46.1% of the vote in December 2023. The 2025/26 student movement has mobilized the opposition and is expected to push the SNS vote share to ~35–42%, but no unified opposition bloc has emerged. No direct Polymarket market available; Metaculus assigns 59–87% to the structurally dominant incumbent bloc in US elections, serving as a general incumbency reference. The SNS winning the most seats is the base case; whether with an outright majority or needing coalition partners remains uncertain.
Data basis for this prediction
- Al Jazeera: Serbia 2026 Snap Parliamentary Election overview (25. Sept. 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Serbian parliamentary election – Hintergrund und Polling-Übersicht
- OSCE/ODIHR Abschlussbericht Dezember 2023: SNS 46,1 % der Stimmen
- Metaculus: US Midterms 2026 – Republikanische Partei hält Senat (59 %) als Incumbent-Baseline-Referenz
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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