🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
US Congress passes a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) for FY2027 instead of a full appropriations bill by 30 September 2026 (confirmed by GPO or Congressional Record)
Probability
68%
The US fiscal year 2026 ends 30 September 2026. Since FY1998, Congress has not once passed all twelve appropriations bills on time; in 13 of the past 15 fiscal years, not a single bill cleared by the deadline. Historical base rate for a Continuing Resolution: approximately 80–85%. A complete on-time budget is essentially impossible (~2–3%). A government shutdown (most recently a 76-day partial DHS shutdown in FY2025/26, resolved February 2026) is possible but less likely than a CR (~15–18%). The prediction resolves as a hit if Congress passes a CR by 30 September 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Pew Research Center: 'Congress hat seit FY1997 nie alle Haushaltsgesetze pünktlich verabschiedet' (Pew, 2025)
- CRFB: vollständiger Haushalt pünktlich nur 3× in 40 Jahren (1994, 1995, 1997) – CRFB.org
- Letzter Shutdown: 76-tägige DHS-Teilabsicherung FY2025/26, beendet mit $1,2-Bio.-Paket Feb 2026 (Reuters/AP, Feb 2026)
- Historische CR-Basisrate seit FY1998: ~80–85 % aller Fiskaljahre (CRS/NACo, 2025)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.