US Federal Reserve (FOMC) cuts the federal funds rate at least once by 25 basis points to 3.25–3.50% by December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
·
Predicted for 31. December 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Current fed funds rate: 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%; CNBC/FRED, July 9, 2026). FOMC meets July 29 (no change expected, already open), September, October/November, December 2026. Tariff-driven growth softness and Core PCE ~2.4–2.6% provide room to cut. Risk: Iran oil shock drives H2 inflation, forcing a pause. Polymarket actively trades 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?'; no direct percentage accessible. No contradiction with open July-29 prediction (no change).
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC/FRED: Fed-Leitzins 3,50–3,75 % effektiv 3,62 % per 9.07.2026
- Polymarket: 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' aktiv gehandelt (19.07.2026)
- Fortune: Iran-Ölschock – Inflationsrisiko H2 2026
- Fed FOMC Kalender: verbleibende Meetings Sep., Okt./Nov., Dez. 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In the upper house election on July 20, 125 of 248 seats are contested. In the last Sangiin election (July 2025), the LDP won 39 seats — despite PM Takaichi's historic supermajority in the February 2026 Lower House election (316 seats). Upper house voters are traditionally more critical of the government; CSIS labels the outcome 'prolonged instability'. Polymarket carries no direct LDP seat market; the 40-seat threshold is assessed as a narrow 50/50, as the LDP won exactly 39 seats in 2025.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
CSIS and Bloomberg analysis projects the LDP-Komeito coalition losing its Upper House majority, driven by voter anger over rising rice prices, the 2024 LDP fundraising scandal, and stagnant real wages. The DPP under Tamaki Yūichirō benefits as a centrist-populist alternative; polls pegged the party at 18–27 new seats. An open Cassandra prediction already forecasts ≥15 seats; this prediction raises the bar to ≥20, consistent with the existing forecast (≥20 implies ≥15). No prediction market available; estimate from poll midpoint.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Keiko Fujimori won Peru's presidential runoff in June 2026 with 50.1% of valid votes. The inauguration is confirmed for Peruvian Independence Day (July 28). International heads of state — including Argentina's Milei, Chile's Kast, and Panama's Mulino — have confirmed attendance; security and protocol preparations are on track. Residual risks: legal challenges or security incidents could theoretically delay proceedings, but cancellation is considered extremely unlikely given the confirmed international presence. This is a prediction about the exercise of a public office.