US Federal Reserve raises interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25 percent — FOMC meeting December 9-10, 2026 (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by December 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. October 2026
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Predicted for 10. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00% as expected today (October 28, 2026). According to CME FedWatch, a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting is priced in at approximately 80% probability. Context: US headline CPI was 3.7% YoY in September 2026 — well above the 2% target — despite weak employment data (+29,000 in September). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled continued tightening readiness at today's press conference. A December hike would complete the pattern of three rate increases in 2026 (March, September, December). Risk: a further deterioration in the labor market could force the Fed to pause.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: ~80% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Dezember-Zinserhöhung nach Oktober-Hold (EBC Financial Group, 28. Oktober 2026)
- FOMC Oktober 2026: Leitzins bei 3,75–4,00% gehalten; Fed-Chair Kevin Warsh Pressekonferenz (Federal Reserve, 28. Oktober 2026)
- US CPI September 2026: 3,7% YoY; Non-Farm Payrolls September 2026: +29.000 (BLS / Bloomberg, Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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