🏛️ Politics · Next Month

UN Security Council officially recommends a successor candidate for UN Secretary-General António Guterres by September 30, 2026 (term ends December 31, 2026, confirmed by UN press release or Reuters by September 30, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 30. September 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

38%

António Guterres' second term ends December 31, 2026. Historical precedent: in 2016 the Security Council recommended Guterres on October 6, with GA appointment on October 13 — both roughly two months before he took office. For 2026, UNGA High-Level Week (September 22–28) is the most likely catalyst for SC consensus. An SC resolution by September 30 fits the historical pattern but depends on P5 alignment (US, Russia, China). No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found; probability is based on UN process history with uncertainty from geopolitical blocking.

Data basis for this prediction

UN.org: Guterres zweite Amtszeit 1. Januar 2022 – 31. Dezember 2026
UN Press Release SC/12539: SC-Empfehlung Guterres 6. Oktober 2016
UNGA 81. Sitzung Generaldebatte 22.–28. September 2026 (un.org / SDG Knowledge Hub)
Polymarket / Kalshi: Kein direkter Markt für UN-SG-Nachfolge gefunden (Stand 9. September 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Der UN-Sicherheitsrat hat bis zum 30. September 2026 KEINE offizielle Empfehlung ausgesprochen. Am 29. September 2026 fand lediglich der 4. informelle 'Straw Poll' statt, bei dem Rebeca Grynspan (Costa Rica) mit 10 'Encourage'-Stimmen führte. Auch der 5. Straw Poll vom 7. Oktober 2026 zeigte noch keinen Konsens – Grynspan fiel sogar leicht auf 9 'Encourage'-Stimmen zurück. Straw Polls sind informelle Konsultationen, keine formellen Empfehlungen; letztere erfordert eine Resolution in einem privaten Ratstreffen. Laut Security Council Report und PassBlue.com besteht weiterhin Unklarheit über das Veto-Verhalten der P5-Mitglieder. Der Zeitplan zeigt auf eine formelle Empfehlung erst im Oktober/November 2026. Die Vorhersage scheiterte daran, dass der P5-Konsens nicht rechtzeitig zustande kam und der Prozess länger dauert als das historische Muster von 2016 vermuten ließ. (Quellen: passblue.com, securitycouncilreport.org, ticotimes.net, cgtn.com)

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