TikTok (ByteDance) remains available and fully operational in the United States through December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
All prior US ban deadlines (January, April, July 2025) were extended or suspended. ByteDance formed a US-controlled joint venture in early 2026, addressing divestiture requirements. Polymarket analysis (July 18, 2026): the inverse probability of an adverse TikTok event through year-end is ~25%, implying ~75% availability through December 31. A full ban requires Congressional action or executive order — both politically costly before the midterm elections (November 3, 2026). TikTok has ~170M US users — too structurally embedded for near-term shutdown.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket TikTok adverse event bis Dez. 2026: ~25 % → Verfügbarkeit ~75 % (Polymarket, 18. Juli 2026)
- ByteDance US-Joint-Venture-Gründung: Anfang 2026 (Kalshi/Politico)
- Alle bisherigen Verbotsfristen verlängert/ausgesetzt: Jan./Apr./Jul. 2025 (Reuters)
- TikTok US-Nutzerbasis: ~170 Mio. (Statista, 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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