Thorsten Frei (CDU) confirmed as new CDU/CSU parliamentary group chairman (29 July 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket prices Frei's election at 98%. Chancellor Merz nominated his chancellery chief on 22 July 2026 to succeed resigned Jens Spahn (surrogacy controversy). No rival candidates entered; the CDU/CSU group votes at a special session on 29 July. Bloomberg reported the nomination as a done deal. Verification: CDU press release after the parliamentary group session, 29 July 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 98 % (Stand 26.07.2026)
- Bloomberg: 'Merz's Chief of Staff to Be Named Parliamentary Group Leader' (22.07.2026)
- TheColu.mn: 'Thorsten Frei Set to Replace Spahn as CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group Leader' (22.07.2026)
- BrusselsSignal: 'Merz picks chancellery chief to lead German conservatives after surrogacy row' (Juli 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
Polymarket prices Bev Craig (Labour) at 99%. The by-election — the largest in British history, with over 2 million eligible voters — was triggered when Andy Burnham won the Makerfield parliamentary seat. Reform UK's Sian Astley and the Green candidate Geraldine Coggins are considered long shots. Labour has held Greater Manchester uninterruptedly since 2017.
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✦ AI
Polymarket shows 86% probability for Democrats winning the House; $9M traded (as of 26 July 2026). Projections: Democrats 232 vs. Republicans 203 seats. Historical basis: the incumbent president's party loses ~26 seats on average in midterms (1946–2022); Republican majority after 2024 was only ~220–221 seats (buffer: ~3 seats). Kalshi shows similar Democratic lead; Senate race remains separate and closer. Structural risks: gerrymandering in GOP-controlled swing states. Slight downward deviation from Polymarket (86%) due to residual gerrymandering uncertainty.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Saxony-Anhalt holds its state election on September 6, 2026. Current polls (PolitPro.eu / Statistiken-Aktuell, July 2026) show the AfD at 41.0–41.5% — just short of a Landtag majority (47 of 97 seats). The CDU stands at only 23.8–25.1%, Die Linke at 12.5–13.7%. The outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition falls well short of a majority. No Polymarket data; with a polling base of ~41%, estimated ~65% probability of exceeding the 38% threshold (polling margin of error ±3%).