📈 Economy · Next Week

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) beats Q2 2026 adjusted Non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$0.47 per share (July 22, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. July 2026 · Predicted for 22. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

77%

Tesla reported Q2 2026 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles on July 2, 2026 – ~18% above the Wall Street estimate of 406,024 (TechTimes). EPS consensus stands at ~$0.47 (MarketBeat). UBS analyst Spak targets $0.67 EPS (TipRanks) – a ~43% beat. Auto gross margin ex-credits projected at 19% vs. 17.6% consensus. This earnings season, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock all beat estimates (confirmed). No direct Polymarket anchor; historical Q2 beat rate for large growth companies >65%.

Data basis for this prediction

Tesla Q2 2026 Deliveries: 480.126 Fzg. (+25 % YoY, TechTimes, 2. Juli 2026)
EPS-Konsens Q2 2026: ca. 0,47 USD (MarketBeat/MEXC Earnings Preview, Juli 2026)
UBS-Schätzung Q2 EPS: 0,67 USD – 43 % Beat erwartet (Joseph Spak, TipRanks, Juli 2026)
Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings Webcast: 22. Juli 2026, 17:30 ET (ir.tesla.com)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Tesla verfehlte beim Q2-2026-Ergebnis (22. Juli 2026) den Non-GAAP-EPS-Konsens deutlich: Das berichtete bereinigte EPS lag bei 0,33 USD – rund 30–35 % unter dem Konsens von ca. 0,47–0,51 USD (Quellen: Teslarati, QZ, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). Trotz des starken Auslieferungsrekords von 480.126 Fahrzeugen (+18 % über Erwartung) brach die operative Marge auf 1,4 % ein (GAAP-Betriebseinkommen –57 % YoY auf 398 Mio. USD), was auf massive Margenkompression und höhere Betriebskosten hindeutet. Die Prämisse der Vorhersage – starke Auslieferungen → starkes EPS – ging nicht auf, weil die Kostenseite (Investitionen in KI/Roboter, Preisdruck) die Umsatzstärke überwog. Die Aktie fiel nach Börsenschluss um ~4 %.

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