📈 Economy · Next Month

US Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q2 2026 (BLS, 31 July 2026) rises by more than 0.9% quarter-on-quarter

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

43%

ECI published July 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Historical ECI: +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. With persistently tight labor market (US Initial Claims <230k per existing prediction), ongoing wage negotiations in healthcare and IT, and energy price pressure from the Hormuz crisis, wage inflation remains sticky. A reading >0.9% QoQ would be slightly above consensus of ~0.8–0.9% and would dampen Fed rate-cut expectations for late 2026. No Polymarket quote available.

Data basis for this prediction

Scotiabank Economic Calendar: US ECI Q2 2026 Veröffentlichung 31. Juli 2026 (Scotiabank CA, Juli 2026)
BLS: US ECI Q4 2024 +0,9 % QoQ; Q1 2025 +0,9 % QoQ (historisches Muster)
Federal Reserve Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026)
Bestehende Vorhersage: US Initial Claims <230.000 (KW12 Juli 2026) – Zeichen weiter enger Arbeitsmarktlage

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der US ECI Q2 2026 stieg laut BLS-Veröffentlichung vom 31. Juli 2026 um genau 0,9 % QoQ (saisonbereinigt) – nicht mehr als 0,9 %, wie die Vorhersage verlangte. Der Jahresvergleich (nicht saisonbereinigt) lag bei 3,4 %. Der Wert traf damit exakt den Konsens (0,8–0,9 %) und verfehlte die Schwelle >0,9 % knapp. Quellen: BLS Employment Cost Index Summary Q2 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm) und BigGo Finance (https://finance.biggo.com/news/74ebd921-6b61-4d0b-a6d0-7592faaf8f7e).

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