🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Sweden Democrats (SD) receive more votes than the Moderates (M) in the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026, becoming the second-largest party (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 2. September 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

73%

Current polls consistently show SD ahead of M: Demoskop (24 Aug 2026) measures SD 18.3% vs M 17.2%; PolitPro trend shows SD 19.2% vs M 17.9%. The ~1–1.4pp gap is stable across multiple institutes. Open Cassandra predictions set SD >18% and M >16% (both open), consistent with this forecast. The Red-Green bloc can independently win 175+ seats. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi odds for this partial result.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop Aug. 24, 2026: SD 18,3 %, M 17,2 % (PolitPro.eu, 2. Sept. 2026)
PolitPro Trend: SD 19,2 %, M 17,9 % (PolitPro.eu, 2. Sept. 2026)
Wikipedia Umfrageübersicht Riksdag-Wahl 2026 (Stand 2. Sept. 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Das amtliche Endergebnis (Valmyndigheten, veröffentlicht nach dem 13. September 2026) zeigt das Gegenteil der Vorhersage: Moderaterna (M) erzielte ca. 19,8–19,9 % (70 Mandate) und Sverigedemokraterna (SD) nur ca. 17,5 % (62 Mandate). SD verlor gegenüber 2022 rund 3,3 Prozentpunkte und wurde damit NICHT zweitstärkste Partei – M blieb klar vor SD. Das Novus-Exit-Poll am Wahlabend (SD 18,5 %, M 17,5 %) suggerierte kurzzeitig das Gegenteil, wurde aber durch die vollständige Auszählung widerlegt. Quellen: val.se (Election results 2026), SVT Nyheter Valresultat 2026, Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', Al Jazeera 'Sweden election is too close to call as far right loses ground' (15.9.2026).

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