🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Sverigedemokraterna (SD) wins more than 18.0% of votes at the Swedish Riksdag election on September 13, 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

73%

Current polls (Novus, Verian, Demoskop, PolitPro trend as of August 28, 2026) place SD at ~19.2%. Polymarket gives SD an 81% probability of finishing second behind Social Democrats (S ~32–34%). The 18.0% threshold sits ~1.2 points below the current polling average. In the 2022 election SD won 20.5% — a slight decline is possible, but a drop below 18% is unlikely. Note: existing open predictions cover S, M, L, C, V, and the Tidö majority — SD vote share itself is uncovered.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Sweden Election Trend (28. August 2026): SD ~19,2 %
Polymarket: SD als 2. Stärkste Partei — 81% Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand: August 2026, lines.com/polymarket)
Riksdag-Wahl 2022: SD 20,5% (Valmyndigheten)
Wikipedia 2026 Swedish General Election: Novus/Demoskop-Schnitt August 2026 ~19–20%

Verdict: Miss

Sverigedemokraterna erzielte bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 laut Valmyndigheten 17,48 % (1.183.248 Stimmen, 62 Sitze) – und verfehlte damit die Schwelle von 18,0 % um ca. 0,5 Prozentpunkte. Die Partei fiel sogar auf Platz 3 zurück und verlor 11 Sitze gegenüber 2022 (damals 20,5 %). Die Vorhersage unterschätzte den tatsächlichen Rückgang: Die Umfragen lagen bei ~19,2 % und damit deutlich über dem tatsächlichen Ergebnis. Quellen: Valmyndigheten (resultat.val.se/val2026), Wikipedia '2026 Swedish general election', SVT Nyheter Valresultat 2026.

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