SPD achieves more than 24.0% of votes cast in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on September 20, 2026 (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter MV or tagesschau.de)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current INSA polls for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (August 2026) show SPD at 29%, AfD at 36%, Linke at 11%, and CDU at 10%. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig benefits from high personal approval and incumbency (2021 result: 39.6%). The 24.0% threshold is ~5 points below the polling average — a buffer for historical mobilization risk and polling variance. Infratest dimap puts SPD in the 27–31% corridor. No existing Cassandra forecast covers the SPD MV result. Estimated probability: 82%.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern August 2026: SPD 29%, AfD 36%, Linke 11%, CDU 10% (wahlrecht.de, August 2026)
- Infratest dimap Wahltrend MV August 2026: SPD 27–31% (tagesschau.de, August 2026)
- Landeswahlleiter MV: SPD-Ergebnis 2021: 39,6% — starker Schwesig-Amtsinhaberbonus (Landeswahlleiter MV, September 2021)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.