Socialdemokraterna (S, Sweden) receives more than 31.0% of votes at the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The latest Demoskop poll of 24 August 2026 shows the Social Democrats at 30.4%. The threshold of 31.0% is 0.6 percentage points above the current polling level, within the typical swing between final polls and election results in Sweden. Historically: S got exactly 31.0% in 2014, 30.3% in 2022, 28.3% in 2018. As opposition since 2022 (Tidö coalition under Ulf Kristersson, M), the Social Democrats benefit from incumbency fatigue and elevated cost of living. Wahlrecht.de consensus shows S in the 30.5–32% range. Confirmed by Valmyndigheten.
Data basis for this prediction
- Demoskop (Politpro.eu): Socialdemokraterna 30,4%, Riksdag-Wahl-Umfrage 24.08.2026
- Wahlrecht.de/Politpro.eu: Konsensbereich S = 30,5–32% (August 2026)
- Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahlergebnis 2022: Socialdemokraterna = 30,3%
- Riksdag-Wahl 2026: 13. September 2026 (offizielle Bestätigung)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.