🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Socialdemokraterna (S, Sweden) receives more than 31.0% of votes at the Riksdag election on 13 September 2026 (confirmed by Valmyndigheten)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 13. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

44%

The latest Demoskop poll of 24 August 2026 shows the Social Democrats at 30.4%. The threshold of 31.0% is 0.6 percentage points above the current polling level, within the typical swing between final polls and election results in Sweden. Historically: S got exactly 31.0% in 2014, 30.3% in 2022, 28.3% in 2018. As opposition since 2022 (Tidö coalition under Ulf Kristersson, M), the Social Democrats benefit from incumbency fatigue and elevated cost of living. Wahlrecht.de consensus shows S in the 30.5–32% range. Confirmed by Valmyndigheten.

Data basis for this prediction

Demoskop (Politpro.eu): Socialdemokraterna 30,4%, Riksdag-Wahl-Umfrage 24.08.2026
Wahlrecht.de/Politpro.eu: Konsensbereich S = 30,5–32% (August 2026)
Valmyndigheten: Riksdag-Wahlergebnis 2022: Socialdemokraterna = 30,3%
Riksdag-Wahl 2026: 13. September 2026 (offizielle Bestätigung)

Verdict: Miss

Socialdemokraterna erzielte laut Valmyndigheten bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 nur 28,02% der Stimmen – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 31,0%. Das Ergebnis liegt sogar unter dem Umfragestand von 30,4% (Demoskop, 24. August) und stellt das schlechteste S-Ergebnis seit über einem Jahrhundert dar. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte die Verluste: Der erhoffte Regierungsmüdigkeitsbonus trat in dieser Stärke nicht ein. Trotzdem gewann das Mitte-Links-Bündnis knapp (176:173 Sitze). Quellen: Valmyndigheten (val.se), Wikipedia EN, bpb.de, ZDF.

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