🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Serbian parliamentary election (October 25, 2026): Aleksandar Vučić's SNS-led government coalition wins more than 40.0% of party-list votes — confirmed by Serbia's Republican Electoral Commission (RIK) or Reuters by October 26, 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 20. September 2026 · Predicted for 25. October 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

70%

President Vučić dissolved the Serbian parliament on September 9, 2026 (Balkan Insight); snap elections are set for October 25, 2026. The Vučić coalition achieved 48.06% in the December 2023 parliamentary election under the brand 'Aleksandar Vučić – Serbia Must Not Stop' (AV-SNSDS) (RIK Serbia). In Serbia, Vučić controls the dominant broadcast system (RTS), which structurally disadvantages opposition parties (OSCE-ODIHR election reports). The opposition movement 'Srbija se buni' remains fragmented; no powerful unified list was formed by candidate registration. No direct Polymarket or Kalshi odds available. Historical base rate (2022–2023: 46–48%) plus institutional advantage → probability for >40% approximately 70%.

Data basis for this prediction

Balkan Insight: Vučić ruft serbische Parlamentsneuwahl für 25. Oktober 2026 aus (09.09.2026)
RIK Serbien / Wikipedia: Parlamentswahl Dez. 2023 – Vučić-Koalition (AV-SNSDS) 48,06 % der Listenstimmen
OSCE-ODIHR: Mediendominanz und strukturelle Vorteile SNS in serbischen Wahlkämpfen (2022–2024)
Polymarket/Kalshi: kein direkter Kontrakt zur serbischen Wahl 2026 gefunden; Kalibrierung auf histor. Basis

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) fails to form a functioning majority coalition after the Israeli Knesset election of October 27, 2026, by November 30, 2026 (confirmed by Office of the President of Israel or Reuters by December 1, 2026)

Current polls (Jerusalem Post, c. September 18, 2026) place the Netanyahu coalition bloc at ~52 seats — nine below the 61-seat majority threshold. Likud itself is projected at 19–27 seats (median ~22), well below its 2022 result (32 seats). The opposition bloc led by Yashar's Gadi Eisenkot is also below 61. Polymarket market 'Israel Election – Likud Seats': probability of <25 seats at ~60%. Historical precedent: the same seat arithmetic in 2019–2022 led to four elections in under two years. Forming a government within 28 days of the election requires crossing the 61-seat threshold — structurally difficult at 52 bloc seats without unexpected crossovers from the centrist camp.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

2026 Berlin State Election: Die Linke becomes the strongest party by party-list vote share (confirmed by Berlin State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

All final polls show a genuine three-way race: Die Linke at 20.7–23% (BerlinTREND/Infratest dimap, PolitPro, as of 18–19 Sep 2026) narrowly ahead of CDU (20–21%) and AfD (17–18.9%). In 5 of 6 latest polls Die Linke ranks first, but always within margin of error vs CDU. Greens (15–16%), SPD (10–12%), BSW (~3–4%), FDP (~3%) trail. No prediction markets for Berlin state elections available. The ~42% reflects the genuine three-way contest: with base odds ~25–30% each for Linke, CDU, AfD to top, Die Linke's polling lead gives a slight edge.

42%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Election: AfD exceeds 35.0% of party-list votes cast (confirmed by MV State Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

All final polls (Infratest dimap, INSA, as of 17–18 Sep 2026) put the AfD at 37–38% in MV, more than two percentage points above the 35.0% threshold. SPD under Minister-President Schwesig follows at 33–34%; CDU and Die Linke each at ~7%. The gap between poll mean (~37.5%) and threshold (35%) exceeds the typical polling-error standard deviation (~2pp), justifying high confidence. No prediction markets available; 78% accounts for a residual SPD late-mobilisation risk.

78%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026