🏛️ Politics · Next Month

French Senate election (27 September 2026): Rassemblement National (RN) forms an independent Senate group for the first time with at least 10 seats (confirmed by Le Monde or AFP by 28 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 27. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

55%

In the 2026 Senate election, 178 of 348 seats will be renewed. RN currently lacks the minimum of 10 senators required to form its own parliamentary group. The 2026 municipal elections strengthened RN in several departments whose municipal councillors serve as Senate electors. Le Monde and Connexion France expect significant RN gains. The existing open prediction ('Conservatives retain absolute majority') is consistent with this forecast, as an RN group does not eliminate the conservative majority. No direct prediction market; political polls and municipal election results support approximately 55%.

Data basis for this prediction

Connexion France: Sénat-Wahl 2026 – 178 Sitze erneuert, RN-Gewinne erwartet (September 2026)
Le Monde: RN-Kommunalwahlgewinne 2026 in sénat-relevanten Departements (2026)
Sénat-Reglement: Mindestgröße 10 Senatoren für eigenständige parlamentarische Gruppe (Art. 5)
Wikipedia: 2026 French Senate Election – RN aktuell ohne eigene Senatsgruppe

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] RN bildete erstmals eine eigenständige Senatsgruppe mit 14 Mitgliedern (RN + UDR-Verbündete, Mindestzahl 10 deutlich überschritten). Jordan Bardella bestätigte dies am 27. September 2026. Quelle: CNews, publicsenat.fr, titrespresse.com

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026