Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 85.0% of eligible voters (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 6. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Sweden traditionally shows very high voter turnout: 87.18% (2018), 85.8% (2014), 84.6% (2010), and 84.21% (2022, source: Valmyndigheten). The 85% threshold was exceeded in 3 of the last 4 elections; 2022 narrowly missed it (84.21%). The 2026 election is particularly polarised — SD and S are neck-and-neck, multiple parties are fighting the threshold — factors that typically drive mobilisation up. SVT polls indicate elevated voter interest. Historical base rate for >85%: 3/4 of the last elections (75%). We set 55%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Valmyndigheten offizielle Wahlbeteiligung: 84,21 % (2022), 87,18 % (2018), 85,80 % (2014) (val.se)
- SVT/Sifo Wahlumfragen September 2026: SD und S gleichauf, mehrere Parteien an 4-%-Hürde
- Metaculus/Pollofpolls Schweden 2026: Polarisierung als Mobilisierungsfaktor
Verdict: Miss
Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Riksdag-Wahl am 13. September 2026 lag laut Valmyndigheten bei ca. 80,3 %, deutlich unter der vorhergesagten Marke von 85,0 %. Dies ist sogar ein Rückgang gegenüber 2022 (84,21 %). Die erhoffte Mobilisierungswirkung durch die politische Polarisierung trat nicht ein – stattdessen sank die Beteiligung auf den niedrigsten Stand seit mehreren Wahlen. Quelle: val.se / valresultatet.se (Valmyndigheten).
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