🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): FDP fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by State Returning Officer of Saxony-Anhalt)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

91%

Current polls (INSA/PolitPro, as of approx. August 23, 2026) put the FDP in Saxony-Anhalt at 2.9%. Reaching the 5% threshold would require nearly doubling their vote share. The election is dominated by AfD (42.1%); CDU (23%), Die Linke (13%), and SPD (6.5%) compete for remaining seats. Mobilisation reserves for a small liberal party in this environment are minimal. No published poll has placed the FDP above 4%. No relevant Polymarket market available.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Election Trend Sachsen-Anhalt: FDP 2,9% — AfD 42,1%, CDU 23%, Die Linke 13,1%, SPD 6,5% (23. Aug 2026)
dawum.de: Sonntagsfrage Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt 2026 — FDP durchgängig unter 4% in allen Umfragen (Aug 2026)
t-online.de: Sachsen-Anhalt-Wahl 2026 – Wahlumfrage, drei Parteien zittern (Aug 2026)
Wikipedia: Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt 2026 — Wahltermin 6. September 2026

Verdict: Hit

Die FDP erzielte bei der Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl am 6. September 2026 laut amtlichem Ergebnis des Landeswahlleiters 2,6% der Zweitstimmen und scheiterte damit klar an der 5%-Sperrklausel. Sie zieht nicht in den Landtag ein. Die Vorhersage trat vollständig ein. Quellen: Offizielles Wahlergebnisportal Sachsen-Anhalt (wahlergebnisse.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt26/) und ZDF-Berichterstattung (zdfheute.de).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Roger Wicker (Republican) retains the US Senate seat in Mississippi after recount — confirmed by AP or NBC News by 20 November 2026

With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.

55%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Mary Peltola (Democrat) wins the US Senate seat in Alaska against Dan Sullivan (Republican) — US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026 (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 5, 2026)

Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 5. Nov 2026