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🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): CDU, SPD or other democratic parties form governing coalition without AfD participation (coalition agreement signed by 31 October 2026, confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt state government)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. October 2026 · Based on: Speculative
Probability
55%

Polymarket rates: AfD wins most seats at 98% — but AfD absolute majority at only 40%. In ~60% of scenarios AfD has no absolute majority and needs coalition partners, all of whom rule out cooperation nationwide. P(non-AfD coalition) = 0.60 × 0.90 + 0.40 × 0.05 ≈ 0.56. The existing open prediction covers only AfD vote share >38%; government formation is an independent question. Adjusted for negotiation delays and political edge cases: 55%.

Data basis for this prediction
  • Polymarket: AfD gewinnt meiste Sitze Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: 98 % (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
  • Polymarket: AfD absolute Mehrheit Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: 40 % (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
  • Wikipedia: 2026 elections in Germany – Sachsen-Anhalt 6. September (wikipedia.org)
Verdict: Miss
Die Vorhersage ist nicht eingetreten. Zwar fand die Wahl am 6. September 2026 statt, doch wurde bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 kein Koalitionsvertrag einer Nicht-AfD-Koalition unterzeichnet – im Gegenteil: Eine solche Koalition kam gar nicht zustande. Die AfD gewann mit 43,8 % (39 von 83 Sitzen, 3 unter absoluter Mehrheit). Die CDU lehnte Gespräche mit SPD und anderen Parteien über eine Koalition ohne AfD explizit ab und erklärte, in die Opposition zu gehen (Tagesspiegel/t-online). Damit war rechnerisch nur noch eine Koalition aus CDU+SPD+Grüne+Linke+BSW möglich, die aber an der CDU-Absage scheiterte. Das BSW lehnte seinerseits eine formelle Koalition mit der AfD ab, blockierte aber auch andere Optionen. Stand 6. November 2026 ist weiterhin kein neuer Ministerpräsident gewählt; AfD-Spitzenkandidat Ulrich Siegmund plant seine Kandidatur erst für Dezember 2026 (ZDF heute, Stuttgarter Zeitung). Die Deadline 31. Oktober 2026 für einen unterzeichneten Koalitionsvertrag wurde deutlich verfehlt – die Regierungsbildung ist noch völlig offen. Hauptursachen: CDU-Rückzug in die Opposition trotz Ausschluss der AfD-Koalition, sowie kein kooperationswilliger Partner für ein demokratisches Bündnis. Quellen: bpb.de, de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Sachsen-Anhalt_2026, tagesspiegel.de, zdfheute.de
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