Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026): CDU, SPD or other democratic parties form governing coalition without AfD participation (coalition agreement signed by 31 October 2026, confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt state government)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. October 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Polymarket rates: AfD wins most seats at 98% — but AfD absolute majority at only 40%. In ~60% of scenarios AfD has no absolute majority and needs coalition partners, all of whom rule out cooperation nationwide. P(non-AfD coalition) = 0.60 × 0.90 + 0.40 × 0.05 ≈ 0.56. The existing open prediction covers only AfD vote share >38%; government formation is an independent question. Adjusted for negotiation delays and political edge cases: 55%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: AfD gewinnt meiste Sitze Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: 98 % (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
- Polymarket: AfD absolute Mehrheit Sachsen-Anhalt 2026: 40 % (polymarket.com, Juli 2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 elections in Germany – Sachsen-Anhalt 6. September (wikipedia.org)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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