Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): CDU receives more than 20.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Saxony-Anhalt state returning officer)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
·
Predicted for 6. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls (INSA/T-Online, August 2026) put the CDU under leading candidate and sitting Minister-President Sven Schulze at 22%. The 20.0% threshold sits 2 points below the current polling average, providing a buffer against polling error. AfD dominates at 41–43%, Die Linke at 13%, SPD at 7%. BSW, Greens, and FDP are fighting for the 5% threshold per open predictions. Schulze's incumbency visibility (media presence as head of government) and moderate CDU voters in rural areas support a result above 20%. No Polymarket/Kalshi market available for Saxony-Anhalt state vote shares.
Data basis for this prediction
- Sachsen-Anhalt Umfragen August 2026: CDU 22%, AfD 41–43% (INSA, T-Online/Wahlrecht.de)
- Offene Vorhersagen: AfD absolute Mehrheit ≥44 Mandate; Grüne, FDP, BSW scheitern an 5%-Sperrklausel
- Sachsen-Anhalt Landeswahlleiter (sachsen-anhalt.de), Wahlrecht.de, Stand August 2026
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CDU erzielte 37,1 % der Stimmen — deutlich über 20 %. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.