🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Saxony-Anhalt state election (September 6, 2026): Alliance 90/The Greens fail to clear the 5% threshold and do not enter the state parliament (confirmed by the Saxony-Anhalt State Returning Officer)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

52%

Latest INSA poll for Saxony-Anhalt (August 2026, for Bild): AfD 42%, CDU 23%, Die Linke 13%, SPD 7%, Greens exactly 5.0% – right on the threshold, statistical margin of error ±2–3 pp. The Greens won only 5.9% in Saxony-Anhalt's 2021 election and historically have shallow roots in eastern Germany. With a strongly AfD-polarised electorate, the Greens' national collapse after leaving government in 2024/25, and the local candidate environment, marginal factors tilt slightly toward missing the threshold. No direct Polymarket market; forecast reflects a genuine near-50:50 with a small lean toward failure based on eastern Germany historical patterns.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage Sachsen-Anhalt August 2026 (Bild): Grüne 5,0% – t-online.de, August 2026
Wahlrecht.de: Sachsen-Anhalt Sonntagsfragen-Aggregator 2026 (Stand August 2026)
Dawum.de: Sachsen-Anhalt Wahlumfragen August 2026

Verdict: Miss

Die Grünen erzielten laut Wikipedia (2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election) ca. 8,93 % der Stimmen und zogen mit 8 Sitzen klar in den Landtag ein – weit über der 5%-Hürde. Die INSA-Umfrage (5,0 %) hatte das tatsächliche Ergebnis massiv unterschätzt; die Grünen verdoppelten ihren Stimmanteil gegenüber dem Umfragewert nahezu. Nicht die Grünen, sondern die FDP (2,58 %) scheiterte an der Sperrklausel. Die Prognose war in allen wesentlichen Punkten falsch.

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